Tensions between India and Pakistan is Escalating, and Could Lead to a Full-Scale War between The Two Nuclear Armed Nations
On the 22nd April, 2025 a terrorist mass shooting attack happened in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir. This area is a popular tourist destination for many Indian tourists. The Resistance Front(TRF) which is a terrorist group linked to the Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba claimed responsibility. The mass shooting was targeted toward the unsuspecting mostly Indian tourists, killing 26 civilians and injuring 20. Resulting in one of the worst terrorist attacks on the region in recent years. The exact motivation is still debated, some analysts suggest that the attack was timed to coincide with the U.S Vice President visit to India, aimed to draw international attention to the Kashmir issue.
However the TRF claimed that the attack was to oppose Indian government policies allowing non-local settlement in Kashmir. The attack happened when multiple terrorists infiltrated the tourists area on Baisaran Valley and then opened fire using assault rifles, ambushing the tourists in a forested tourist spot. Following the attack, a massive search was conducted by the Indian authorities to track down and find the perpetrators. The attack worsened the diplomatic relationship between India and Pakistan and escalated the tensions in the Kashmir region and could lead to a possible new conflict between the two nuclear armed nations.
The tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is not a new issue and goes all the way back to the partition of British India in 1947. At the time, British India was divided into two independent nations, which are Hindu majority India and Muslim majority Pakistan. The Kashmir region has a Muslim majority population but is ruled by a Hindu monarch. Kashmir region was initially given the choice to choose to join between the two nations or remain independent and choose to remain independent. However in October 1947 following a rebellion and invasion by Pakistani tribal militia, the Hindu monarch requested help from India and formally joined the country.
After that India militarily intervened and started the first Indo-Pakistani war that ended in a UN mediated ceasefire in 1949. The ceasefire resulted in a division of the Kashmir region along a ceasefire line, later known as the Line of Control (LoC). After the war, India gained approximately two-thirds of the region while Pakistan controlled the rest. Since then, Kashmir has remained a flashpoint of multiple wars between India and Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and 1999 and the ongoing Pakistani backed militant insurgency that fueled the conflict in the region since the 1980s. The conflict is deeply rooted in territorial disputes, religious and ethnic differences and the Kashmiris political aspirations that have been largely sidelined. Until now the Kashmir region remains the main issue of tensions between India and Pakistan and remains the source of further escalation.
India has responded strongly to this event, using both military and diplomatic means. India has accused the Pakistani government of being involved in the terror attack. Although India has not provided credible proof of this claim and Pakistani government has denied the accusation that Pakistan had any involvement in the attack. Immediately after the attack, India has increased its security measures and conducted a massive crackdown in Kashmir in the continued search of the perpetrator. Prime Minister Modi has also reportedly been given “operational freedom” to the military in deciding when or where to conduct any military operation. The Indian navy has also announced that it will conduct missile firing tests in a possible attempt of showing strength.
There has also been reported gunfire exchange between both sides in the border along the Line of Contact with each accusing of initiating it first. In the aftermath of the attack, India has also cut its diplomatic ties with Pakistan severely by expelling Pakistani diplomats, closing the border, implementing visa restrictions, and suspension of treaties and agreements made with Pakistan. The most significant is the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. The 1960 Indus Water Treaty is a significant water sharing agreement mediated by the world bank. This is crucial for Pakistan considering that they were dependent on water allocation made by this agreement.
Although the Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement expressing concern over the loss of lives, Pakistan has denied the allegation of any involvement in the attack and has also denied India’s accusation of supporting the militants in their terrorist act. Pakistani officials condemned India’s measures in responding to the attack, describing them as “reckless” and “illegal”. Pakistan has also decided to retaliate against India’s measures after the attack. In response to India downgrading diplomatic ties, Pakistan has also decided to expel Indian diplomats from Pakistan, revoked visas issued to Indian nationals, halted all trade activity with India, and closed its airspace for India-owned and operated airlines.
In response to Indian military posturing, Pakistan’s military has been on high alert and warned of “befitting reply” to any Indian military action and to retaliate to any perceived aggression. Pakistan has also reportedly conducted live-fire drills and missile tests signaling military readiness. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for an international probe into the attack to counter what he calls India’s “baseless allegations” and has asked global powers, including the US, to urge India to act responsibly and lower its rhetoric.
Countries including the United States, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Israel, Italy, and India’s neighbors such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, and Sri Lanka expressed condolences and condemned the attack. The United Nations and European Union also issued strong statements condemning the violence and urging accountability. The UN Security Council issued a press statement emphasizing the need to bring the perpetrators and their sponsors to justice, while calling on India and Pakistan to exercise restraint to avoid further escalation. The U.S Secretary of State has also stated that “they were closely monitoring the situation and urged both sides to maintain communications and avoid escalation”.
China and Greece, supported calls for an independent international investigation if both parties agree. India briefed key international partners such as the US, UK, UAE, and Russia on its military responses, which it described as measured and focused on dismantling terrorist infrastructure. Overall the global response has been largely sympathy for the victims of the attack and a desire to prevent larger conflict between India and Pakistan. However the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty has been a particularly worrying issue for much of the international community.
Despite international efforts to de-escalate the situation in the region, the conflict has escalated even more. In the 7th May, 2025 India has announced “Operation Sindoor” to destroy targets that India has claimed as the location of terrorist basecamp in the Pakistani territory that perpetrated the terrorist mass shooting attack in Baisaran Valley about two weeks before. It is reported that India has launched its air force to conduct multiple airstrikes at Pakistani territory targeting the suspected terrorist basecamp. The attack launched by India has reportedly targeted locations in the undisputed territory in Pakistan. This is an unusual escalation as in the previous conflict, both sides would only conduct military actions and strikes along the disputed territory in Kashmir region.
In a follow up statement, India’s foreign secretary said pre-emptive strikes were “necessary” implying these camps may have been targeted during the recent cross-border skirmishes. Pakistan has also announced that they will take retaliatory measures to respond to the Indian attack and view them as an act of aggression. It is reported that Pakistan has conducted artillery fire all along the Line of Contact in the disputed Kashmir and has also reported the shooting down of several Indian fighter jets. A Pakistani military spokesperson stated, “Pakistan will respond to last night ‘s India missile attack at a time,place, and manner of our choice.”
It can be analyzed that while a full-scale war remains unlikely, limited military conflict-such as targeted strikes or cross-border artillery is a realistic possibility. Both nations recognise the catastrophic consequence of larger war, ensuring some restraint between both sides. A short term military clash however, could still possibly occur, potentially leading to civilian harm and economic disruptions before any diplomatic effort or interventions could stabilize the situation as the current situation remains volatile until the writing of this article.
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